Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 75172.665830 79413.179190 83656.986587 88219.726459 92983.550169 97807.511378 103058.555422
2026-01-11 68269.478342 74730.078831 81379.408937 88725.107641 96603.163390 104789.056830 113928.367166
2026-01-18 63089.552818 71044.291325 79415.164954 88861.465833 99205.336680 110168.094586 122645.519494
2026-01-25 59138.558651 68204.936875 77924.946498 89089.433878 101526.248927 114922.041111 130408.541959
2026-02-01 55712.076799 65625.649086 76429.769946 89032.909875 103282.927712 118847.162199 137082.701773
2026-02-08 53302.317559 63982.959727 75794.156792 89761.610742 105761.953579 123451.714652 144419.332539
2026-02-15 50761.155385 62020.591808 74642.848425 89760.137905 107287.982970 126884.193422 150359.039617
2026-02-22 49241.642579 61134.507130 74631.765195 90982.009080 110144.533230 131781.656491 157945.139550
2026-03-01 47654.595297 60073.084264 74332.414957 91792.578224 112464.106054 136022.639413 164759.205720
2026-03-08 45726.739750 58510.786423 73358.359135 91729.976319 113694.781481 138952.067194 170020.050474
2026-03-15 44143.448800 57289.459858 72722.768731 92007.707716 115276.728565 142257.508679 175704.600293
2026-03-22 43255.570740 56868.834290 73008.658437 93357.407940 118114.585040 147037.379997 183143.471593
2026-03-29 42203.928142 56215.872759 72993.615444 94336.870728 120519.992380 151338.108114 190077.878976
2026-04-05 41039.100580 55376.177031 72711.902972 94960.075377 122475.770450 155099.569271 196386.863288
2026-04-12 39725.792511 54298.437977 72090.786261 95124.595593 123840.505668 158131.972157 201817.204228
2026-04-19 38532.401652 53328.523247 71564.005015 95370.243214 125277.606576 161237.259616 207336.919539
2026-04-26 37268.326178 52222.370997 70824.641249 95311.546210 126306.949401 163825.874974 212221.393945
2026-05-03 36450.744719 51666.878474 70758.601300 96082.130707 128359.278826 167670.520466 218663.551077
2026-05-10 35337.308279 50684.338311 70111.021367 96080.629006 129415.827945 170270.112270 223567.405166
2026-05-17 34839.585393 50499.672867 70478.819953 97372.197051 132109.152402 174916.250977 231041.274850
2026-05-24 34185.057483 50080.972833 70522.037346 98228.899458 134240.865450 178863.771265 237662.036254
2026-05-31 33181.699795 49159.040348 69876.371751 98162.738209 135168.614993 181286.393098 242370.202714
2026-06-07 32369.932801 48473.242289 69520.253690 98456.260146 136546.983075 184274.437500 247800.168325